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☆ Dividends are critical in a world of higher interest rates and inflation: ClearBridge's Clarfeld
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDividends are critical in a world of higher interest rates and inflation: ClearBridge's ClarfeldMichael Clarfeld, ClearBridge Investments portfolio manager, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss who is at fault for the bifurcation between markets and the Fed, the appropriate metric to watch for the Federal Reserve, and more.

Persons: Michael Clarfeld Organizations: ClearBridge, Fed, Federal Reserve

☆ Here are 3 ways the labor market is showing concerning deterioration underneath strong headline numbers — meaning a recession and stock-market sell-off could sneak up on investors
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-03 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Read previewThe labor market smashed expectations in January, adding 353,000 new jobs, far above economist forecasts of 187,000. Despite the strong headline number, however, there are signs that the job market is deteriorating beneath the surface. For one, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' household survey is showing some divergence from its payroll survey. "High labor and credit costs are beginning to materially impact corporate profits, which impacts both the labor market and (eventually) the default rate." Still, while there are signs of weakening, there are also signs of improvement in the labor market.

Persons: —, Jeff Schulze, today's, Shulze, Louis Fed, Lance Roberts, Ian Shepherdson, Lauren Goodwin Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, of Labor Statistics, BLS, of Labor, ClearBridge Investments, RIA Advisors, National Federation of Independent Business, Pantheon, Bank of America's Global, New York Life Investments, ClearBridge

☆ 'You are now living through Tech Bubble 2.0': A 32-year market vet warns stocks are doomed to suffer substantial losses with valuations at historic highs and the economy on the verge of recession
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-27 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

"For those of you younger than us who did not live through the Tech Bubble of the late 1990s, you are now living through Tech Bubble 2.0. As a reminder, the NASDAQ fell about 80% when that bubble burst in the mild recession of the early 2000s," Wolfenbarger said. AdvertisementThere is evidence that backs up Wolfenbarger's bubble claims, starting with fairly standard valuation measures like the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio. While it's not as high as it was during the dot-com bubble, it's higher than it was in 1929 — and is at one of its most elevated levels in history. Bank of AmericaAs for what will finally deflate the bubble, Wolfenbarger is expecting a recession to hit the US economy.

Persons: —, Microsoft —, Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, it's, America's Michael Hartnett, Louis Fed Wolfenbarger, Jeremy Grantham, Adam Karr, Orbis Investment Management Karr, It's Organizations: Service, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Business, JPMorgan, ClearBridge, Tech, NASDAQ, ClearBridge Investments Bank, America's, Bank of America, Bank of America's Global, Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing, Orbis Investment Management, Global Fund, Federal Reserve Locations: Japan

☆ These 7 recession indicators are still glaring bright red, signaling a sharp downturn could be imminent despite surging GDP and low unemployment
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Combine that with a steady pace of monthly job gains, a historically-low unemployment rate of 3.7%, and inflation under 4%, and it looks like a soft landing is in view. But according to a list of recession indicators from ClearBridge Investments, a downturn is still likely in the months ahead. The Conference BoardThen there's wage growth, which is also declining at a pace typically seen in recessionary environments. On a three-month moving average basis, median wage growth has fallen to 5.2% in December 2023 from 6.7% in August 2022. With the economy holding strong in recent months, consensus has swung heavily back in favor of a soft landing.

Persons: Jeff Schulze, Schulze, Louis Fed, Louis, That's Organizations: Business, ClearBridge Investments, Fourth, Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Louis Fed

☆ 'A lot of ifs and leaps of faith': 7 investment chiefs and strategists break down earnings trends in what may be a make-or-break Q4, and 3 sectors to watch
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Markets are closely monitoring Q4 earnings results, which began rolling out in mid-January, since they give much-needed clarity on the prior year while setting the tone for the year ahead. AdvertisementWhat to expect during the Q4 earnings seasonEarnings seasons often bring surprises, but there are also bankable bets. But we're going to be driven more by the macro, if we're excluding these mega-cap tech stocks." 3 sectors with boom-or-bust potentialWhile the strategists Business Insider spoke with didn't provide investing recommendations, several shared which sectors they're watching in Q4. Bianco believes the tech sector's earnings will rise over 20% this year.

Persons: —, Matt Stucky, Stucky, David Kelly, UBS Josh Jamner, That's, Jamner, Carol Schleif, Schleif, there's, Anthony Saglimbene, David Bianco, Saglimbene, Bianco, Brad Klapmeyer, Klapmeyer, " Bianco, Ameriprise's Saglimbene, BMO's Schleif, Indrani De, De, she's, he'd, that's Organizations: Service, Business, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Asset Management, UBS, ClearBridge Investments, BMO Family Office, DWS, Macquarie Asset Management, FTSE Russell Locations: Americas

☆ Biggest risk for investors is the U.S. consumer, says ClearBridge's Margaret Vitrano
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBiggest risk for investors is the U.S. consumer, says ClearBridge's Margaret VitranoMargaret Vitrano, portfolio manager with ClearBridge Investments, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss declining stock prices, today's CPI inflation data, and more.

Persons: ClearBridge's Margaret Vitrano Margaret Vitrano Organizations: ClearBridge Investments Locations: U.S

The U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, in line with market expectations. Broadly speaking, higher rates for longer could be an unwelcome turn of events for stocks and bonds. The S&P 500 lost 0.94% on Wednesday, while the yield on two-year Treasuries, which reflect interest rate expectations, hit 17-year highs. Futures tied to the Fed’s policy rate late Wednesday showed traders were betting the central bank would ease monetary policy by a total of nearly 60 basis points next year, bringing interest rates to about 4.8%. Signs of wobbling growth could bolster the case for the central bank to cut rates far sooner than it had projected.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Josh Jamner, Gennadiy Goldberg, Jerome Powell, …, David Norris, John Madziyire, ”, Norris, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Herbert Lash, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Stephen Coates Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Federal, U.S, Treasury, U.S ., Clearbridge Investments, TD Securities USA, TwentyFour Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S

☆ Even as the labor market softens the Fed won't be pivoting anytime soon, says Clearbridge's Schulze
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEven as the labor market softens the Fed won't be pivoting anytime soon, says Clearbridge's SchulzeMimi Duff, GenTrust managing director and Jeff Schulze, Clearbridge Investments chief investment strategist join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action and what's ahead for the U.S. economy.

Persons: Clearbridge's Schulze Mimi Duff, GenTrust, Jeff Schulze Organizations: Clearbridge Investments Locations: U.S

The benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) was solidly higher for most of the afternoon, but stocks sold off toward the end of the session. "The jobs report today I think is consistent with what the Fed would like to see," said Josh Jamner, investment strategy analyst at ClearBridge Investments. Among S&P 500 sectors, defensive groups fell the most, with consumer staples (.SPLRCS) down 1.3%. For the week, the S&P 500 fell about 1.2%, the Dow slid roughly 2% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.9%. The S&P 500 posted 11 new 52-week highs and five new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 45 new highs and 63 new lows.

Persons: Levi Strauss, Quincy Krosby, stoked, Josh Jamner, Brendan McDermid, Russell, Dow, Austan Goolsbee, Alibaba, decliners, Lewis Krauskopf, Sinead Carew, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Johann M, Caroline Valetkevitch, Shinjini Ganguli, Richard Chang Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, LPL, Reserve, ClearBridge Investments, Dow Jones, Energy, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Chicago Fed, Rivian Automotive, Ant Group, NYSE, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York City, New York, Bengaluru

The U.S. added the fewest jobs in 2-1/2 years in June, although persistently strong wage growth pointed to still-tight labor market conditions, U.S. government data showed. "The jobs report today I think is consistent with what the Fed would like to see," said Josh Jamner, investment strategy analyst at ClearBridge Investments. According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 12.42 points, or 0.28%, to end at 4,399.17 points, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) lost 18.33 points, or 0.13%, to 13,660.72. Energy (.SPNY) and materials (.SPLRCM) were among the biggest-gaining S&P 500 sectors, while defensive groups including consumer staples (.SPLRCS) lagged. Friday's jobs report kicks off a busy month of data including reports on inflation and corporate earnings ahead of the Fed meeting at the end of July.

Persons: Levi Strauss, payrolls, Josh Jamner, Austan Goolsbee, Carol Schleif, Alibaba, Lewis Krauskopf, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Johann M, Caroline Valetkevitch, Shinjini Ganguli, Richard Chang Organizations: Reserve, ClearBridge Investments, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Energy, Chicago Fed, BMO Family, Rivian Automotive, Ant Group, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York, Bengaluru

☆ Analysis: Contrarians bet U.S. energy shares will shake doldrums in 2023's second half
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

That has hurt shares of energy companies: after soaring in 2022, the S&P 500 energy sector (.SPNY) has lost nearly 10% this year, making it the index’s worst performing sector. Most investors believe central bank interest rate hikes to fight inflation should keep a lid on global growth for the time being. Yet some are positioning for a rebound in energy shares, drawn by attractive valuations and signs the U.S. will continue to stave off an economic downturn. Stan Majcher, a portfolio manager at Hotchkis & Wiley, is among those counting on oil prices rebounding due to tight supply. “If you don’t get it, the path of least resistance is for oil prices to move much higher," he said.

Persons: Brent, David Lefkowitz, Baker Hughes, Stan Majcher, Refinitiv, Charles Lemonides, Sam Peters, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: YORK, UBS Wealth Management, UBS, Federal Reserve, TD Securities, . West Texas, Brent, U.S, drillers, Hotchkis, Wiley, Kosmos Energy Ltd, Bank of America Survey, Hess Corp, Occidental Petroleum Corp, ClearBridge Investments, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, Saudi Arabia

As a result, he is staying away from assets that could be hit hard if market stress suddenly increases, such as small cap stocks. The S&P 500 edged up 0.1% on Wednesday after shuffling between gains and losses. The S&P 500 is up 15% this year, while the Nasdaq (.IXIC) has gained 30%. Mark Heppenstall, chief investment officer of Penn Mutual Asset Management, believes a burgeoning stock market rally could loosen credit conditions, threatening to exacerbate consumer prices - an undesirable outcome for the inflation-fighting Fed. The S&P 500 is up 14% from a low reached after the banking crisis in March.

Persons: ”, Josh Emanuel, Emanuel, James St . Aubin, Jeffrey Gundlach, Mark Heppenstall, Josh Jamner, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Sam Holmes Organizations: YORK, Federal, Wilshire, Nasdaq, Sierra Investment Management, DoubleLine Capital, CNBC, Fed, Penn Mutual Asset Management, ClearBridge Investments, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Debt ceiling deal may shift investor focus to further Fed action
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Megacap technology and growth stocks, which benefit from lower interest rates, have led the market's advance. A Congressional package raising the debt ceiling, meanwhile, is expected to cap spending on government programs. The debt ceiling impasse had weighed on stocks in recent days, but for the most part investors had been expecting Washington to reach a deal. At the same time, the equity market has only just begun to start pricing in more Fed hikes, she added. "The ongoing effects of monetary policy now are setting us up for this wall of debt that people aren't talking about with enough vigor," he said.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with ClearBridge Investment's Michael Clarfeld
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with ClearBridge Investment's Michael ClarfeldMichael Clarfeld, ClearBridge Investments portfolio manager, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the dividend companies Clarfeld favors, how much longer high or rising interest rates will be here and more.

☆ High-quality dividend stocks are the 'place to be' amid headwinds: ClearBridge Investment's Clarfeld
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHigh-quality dividend stocks are the 'place to be' amid headwinds: ClearBridge Investment's ClarfeldMichael Clarfeld, ClearBridge Investments portfolio manager, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the dividend companies Clarfeld favors, how much longer high or rising interest rates will be here and more.

☆ This market cycle has defied most forecasts, says Clearbridge Investments' Michael Clarfeld
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThis market cycle has defied most forecasts, says Clearbridge Investments' Michael ClarfeldRon Insana, co-CEO of Contrast Capital Partners, and Michael Clarfeld, portfolio manager with Clearbridge Investments, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss consumer spending, strains on natural gas infrastructure and energy market investment considerations.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Contrast Capital's Ron Insana and Clearbridge's Michael Clarfeld
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Contrast Capital's Ron Insana and Clearbridge's Michael ClarfeldRon Insana, co-CEO of Contrast Capital Partners, and Michael Clarfeld, portfolio manager with Clearbridge Investments, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss consumer spending, strains on natural gas infrastructure and energy market investment considerations.

☆ Here's where to look for the next developments in the fight against Alzheimer's disease
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Christina Cheddar Berk | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates 5.8 million Americans were living with the disease in 2020 . BIIB 6M mountain Biogen's stock is trading well above its lows Leqembi treats Alzheimer's disease by targeting amyloid-beta plaques in the brain. Attention shifts to Eli Lilly Shares of other Alzheimer's drug developers have often mirrored Biogen's moves. Small drug developers Smaller Alzheimer's drug developers have also been boosted by research developments. Still in an early stage of its research, Prothena has traded as a proxy for developments in Alzheimer's treatment.

☆ The worst of inflation is likely over, but the worst for the economy probably isn't
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

While the inflation rate is still extraordinarily high, there's widespread agreement that the peak has passed. In fact, the only sector where interest rate increases have seemed to hit so far has been housing. So with lots of policy tightening still in the pipeline, softer inflation's accompanying economic slowdown is yet to come. The Fed's critics worry that the rate increases may have gone too far and could be a severe weight on the economy once inflation wears off. However, following the CPI report traders priced in a lower "terminal rate," or end point for the Fed rate hikes.

Hedge fund Farallon Capital, for instance, bought nearly 7.8 million shares of Twitter during the quarter that ended Sept. 30, while Franklin Resources, the parent company of mutual fund firm Franklin Templeton, added nearly 2.6 million shares to an existing position of less than 100,000 shares. Shares of Twitter fell to as low as $33 during the third quarter before ending September near $44. The value of Twitter shares jumped 23.2% in October when Musk completed the deal on Oct. 27 by paying $54.20 per share. While some funds reaped short-term rewards, other investors left some potential gains on the table by selling before the October rally in Twitter shares. Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) sold 3.7 million shares of the company, while ClearBridge Investments LLC sold 1.9 million shares.

☆ These 3 'megatrends' will help investors get the income they need and profit from inflation, according to investing giant Franklin Templeton
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Private real estateThanh Bui, a portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton's private real estate investment unit Clarion Partners, said that it's becoming easier for retail investors to get access to high-quality private real estate. She says the space generally does well when inflation is high, and that private real estate is an effective portfolio diversifier not strongly correlated to stocks, bonds, or public real estate companies. Bui is especially positive on muti-family real estate because there is a huge supply shortage that won't be resolved any time soon. She's also bullish on industrial real estate, where rents are surging because of high demand from e-commerce companies and onshoring. "We view the dividend profile as a way to look at quality of a company.

What they want are signals on the pace of regulation that would allow company boards to plan their climate policy. The reality is that not enough has been done in the last 12 months – some would argue we have moved backwards," said Hortense Bioy, Global Director of Sustainability Research at Morningstar. Thomas Hohne-Sparborth, Head of Sustainability Research at asset manager Lombard Odier, said only a small portion of potential investments were credibly aligned towards net-zero. The biggest disruption since last year's Glasgow climate talks has been the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, a major oil and gas exporter. It can be less obvious for some shareholders, however, as this year's high oil and gas prices have rewarded those producing fossil fuels.

The Labor Department's consumer prices index (CPI) report, due at 8:30 am ET, will likely show headline CPI to have gained at an annual pace of 8.1% in September, lower than an 8.3% increase in August, according to a Reuters poll. However, the core CPI, which eliminates volatile food and fuel prices, is estimated to have risen 6.5% last month, up from a 6.3% rise in August. The report follows data on Wednesday that showed U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in September amid strong gains in the costs of services and goods, suggesting inflation could remain uncomfortably high for a while. ET, Dow e-minis were up 152 points, or 0.52%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 20.25 points, or 0.56%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 35.25 points, or 0.33%. Also on tap is a report that is expected to show 225,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, up from 219,000 in the week prior to that.

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